US wades into troubled yet thawing straits   29 March 2009 

America’s declaration of support for Taiwan comes barely weeks after the little naval showdown between China and the US. The showdown was marked by the US accusing Chinese vessels of harassing its surveillance ship which China had accused of engaging in ‘illegal activities’.  

Fortunately, it all seems to have been a storm in a teacup, and didn’t quite come close to the spy plane incident that characterized former president George Bush’s initial engagement with China. Still, it shows that tensions between the two are liable to surface at the slightest provocation, in spite of the pledges to fashion a new type of relationship based on collaboration as opposed to strategic competition. 

By re-affirming its support for Taiwan so soon after the showdown, the US is saying that it is going to be business as usual when it comes to its position on disputed territories within greater China, especially when those territories are perceived as democratic.  

While welcoming America’s expression of support, Taiwan needs to tread cautiously in order not to heighten tensions across the troubled straits. Relations between Taiwan and China have been warming in the last year with the election of Beijing-friendly President Ma Ying-jeou who has abandoned his predecessor’s obsession with politics and ‘independence’ in favour of trade and commerce. 

During the current economic downturn, opportunities for closer trade, communications and tourist opportunities seem to make more sense than what Beijing calls separatist politics. The current Taiwanese administration recognizes how important better relations will mean to their economic survival.  

In an effort to reward the Taiwanese overtures, Beijing has been relaxing rules and allowing more mainland Chinese tourists to visit the renegade island. Everyone benefits. The tourists get to shop and savour new delights; the Beijing government is deemed more accommodating by its subjects; the Taiwanese economy gets a shot in the arm; and very importantly for Beijing, ordinary Taiwanese who partake of Beijing’s economic munificence begin to realize that the mainland isn’t quite the monster the separatists  have been painting.  

The only danger, which in fact doesn’t seem to trouble Beijing unduly is that by exposing its people to the relative political freedoms on the island, they might begin to think how nice it would be to enjoy the same privileges as our cousins across the straits. On the other hand, given the high-profile corruption case involving the former first family, some tourists might think, well, though we have corruption back home, this is on a level that is clearly beyond the pale.  

And if that’s what it means to have democracy, let them keep it on the island. It is a gamble. But so far it has paid off with respect to Hong Kong and Macau, two territories formerly administered by European colonial powers and which have been allowed to experiment with some democratic tools which hordes of mainland tourists are presumably exposed to while on officially-sanctioned leisure trips.  

But in fact the tourists are protected from the full blast of any democratic waves as they are bussed from one shopping mall to another, from seafood restaurant to amusement back and back to the hotel. On a hectic shopping, feasting and photo-taking schedule, the risk of being exposed to a democratic bug is extremely low.    

Japan’s beleaguered LDP party has watched with some trepidation as the opposition Democratic Party of Japan began to look like a viable option as Prime Minister Taro Aso’s popularity continued on a downward spiral. If the DPJ wins the next elections which could be called within months, they’ll bring to an end LDP’s fifty year unbroken rule.  

Opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa was looking like the best candidate for Japan’s traditionally most insignificant of jobs. But that pole position has been eroded as an aide got embroiled in a fundraising scandal. By opting to ignore calls to resign, Mister Ozawa has muddled the waters and raised questions about the DPJ’s readiness for leadership.

Ozawa of course once belonged to the LDP and even though he has portrayed himself as a reformer, he is under immense pressure now to demonstrate that he has truly shaken off the murkiness of that association. There’s not much time to find a credible flag-bearer and capitalize on the tribulations of the ruling party which has shown little leadership in pulling Japan out of the current economic mess.  

By winning the right to rescue India’s Premier league cricket tournament, South Africa has demonstrated its ability to capitalize on a major opportunity. Blessed with better and more reliable weather than the UK alternative, and quite apart from the anticipated financial returns, is the chance to prove its preparedness for the World Cup. 

Many Indians are understandably disappointed they won’t watch matches live unless they travel to South Africa. But this is a decision which also demonstrates the extent to which the Indian government has succumbed to the threat of terrorism, and hence, how terrorists have succeeded in shaping the sports agenda.  

Telling your citizens that you can’t guarantee their security is a sad state of affairs which begs the question what else will they ‘sub-contract’ to foreign powers especially when political considerations in the form of the imminent elections are allowed to overshadow everything else? 

A beleaguered North Korea looks to China for reassurance   22 March 2009 

Out of pride or anger North Korean officials say they’re no longer interested in American food aid. Clearly that is a political decision steeped in denial that is blatantly unconcerned about the realities on the ground.  

Politicians might well believe everything’s fine. It is for them, anyway. If your fridge is full of imported goodies, and the odd free item from South Korea, it might be difficult to accept that millions are starving.  

Last year, more than a third of the entire population was deemed to be facing starvation. That’s a very disturbing statistic. Is it possible they’ve stockpiled enough food in such a short period of time? The political decision to expel foreign food aid agencies and close its border with South Korea seems at best ludicrous. The government likes to talk big, threatening to defend themselves from the perceived foes like the US, Japan and South Korea.  

Meanwhile, China, their only ally for miles, continues to treat the hermit State with kid gloves. North Korea recognizes that China would not let it collapse, and even if no food is forthcoming from its sworn enemies, China won’t stand by the sidelines and watch them starve. The visit to China by the prime minister whose position is largely symbolic signals the North’s preparedness to hedge its bets by courting its magnanimous neighbour.  

If the North were to implode, China would find itself with the enormous task of stabilizing the country and feeding millions within the country as well as those fleeing across the border. It is therefore in their interest to help North Korea on an-going basis. It is an understanding that North Korea both relishes and exploits. If only China could yield a little more clout. 

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Police brutality in Hong Kong is not a particularly common problem. The police are well-trained and in general quite professional. However, the recent shooting of an unarmed man raised questions about an issue that has not surfaced previously. The policeman was responding to a report about a man urinating in a park. The idea that someone would bother to phone the police about a man relieving himself in the bushes might shock some people.  

Be that as it may, a police officer appeared on the scene by which time the man had presumably zipped up. Faced with the prospect of an arrest, the man fought back. The policeman issued orders in Cantonese which the man who turns out to be Nepalese, did not understand.  

So he shot him in the head at close range. Quite apart from the apparent excessive use of force is the suggestion that the officer demonstrated cultural insensitivity. A basic knowledge of English is expected in a society which is essentially bi-lingual. If the officer was aware that the chap either didn’t look Chinese or didn’t seem to understand the orders to stand back yet failed to say something as simple as ‘don’t move’ in English, he is deemed to have acted insensitively.  

Cultural insensitivity is just one of many problems immigrants have to contend with wherever they happen to find themselves. Police officers have been in the news lately in Hong Kong. Work pressures have been blamed for two high-profile suicides. And a senior officer snatched a woman’s bag, kicked her savagely while she lay helpless on the ground before trying to flee. Passers-by subdued the wayward cop and called his law-enforcing brothers. He has been handed down a twenty four month sentence for a crime which he says was triggered by debt.  

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Obesity is now a major problem in many parts of Asia, even in countries like China that only some decades ago didn’t have enough to eat. Child obesity was until recently a rare phenomenon. Now it is becoming an unfortunate measure of the lifestyle choices young people make as the economy delivers material indulgencies that previous generations could only dream of.  

Children have more to eat than ever before, but quantity doesn’t always mean quality where nutrition is concerned. Some blame so-called fast foods, especially of the western variety. But the domestic fast food option is not necessarily better. A sedentary lifestyle that is characterized by computer games and a fascination with the internet has replaced the healthier option of outdoor activities.  

But the world has also changed in ways that were previously unimaginable. While some of us grew up at a time when the streets, cities and villages were safe and you were free to roam far and wide largely unsupervised, walk (or run) long distances to school at a tender age, children today don’t have that privilege. The suggestion that children’s ‘play dates’ could be chaperoned by hawk-eyed adults would have sounded bizarre to anyone growing up in the seventies.  

In Henan province of China, a group of obese boys have found an innovative way to spend their time and in the process hopefully manage their weight. They’ve formed a dance entertainment troupe that gives commercial performances and have been a huge hit. It is a clever way to create a niche market in the world of entertainment, facing their obesity head-on and commercializing it rather than wallowing in self-pity. If they don’t end up losing weight, they’ll at least salvage their self-confidence.

Sudanese strong man finds support but his days may be numbered  15 March 2009

As expected, China expressed solidarity with Sudan’s strongman after the International Court Court issued a warrant for his arrest. They want the indictment ‘suspended’. Meaning what? That they recognize its inevitability but won’t publicly abandon or condemn an ally?  

China has been a long-term supporter to General al-Beshir, whom they’ve supplied with arms in exchange for oil. While they’re right to claim that the peace process will be jeopardized, this is a self-fulfilling prophesy. China prefers to continue working behind the scenes though the Sudanese government has demonstrated no real commitment to bringing about a peaceful settlement to the on-going crisis. It’s a futile appeasement exercise.  

The retaliatory expulsion of aid agencies demonstrates al-Beshir’s pettiness and the cavalier attitude towards the victims of the atrocities he stands accused of. At least two million people are receiving food, shelter and medical supplies from aid agencies.  

Instead of expelling them, al-Beshir should be asking himself why an oil-rich country is unable or unwilling to look after so many of its own. Is it perhaps because the regime doesn’t really care? Is it because the government is implicated in the atrocities that have rendered these people homeless and destitute?  

And are the Chinese so busy extracting oil and shipping it away that they can’t see the suffering that is unravelling all around them? After all these years of working with the regime supposedly to achieve peace, what have they really achieved?  

If China is to be honest, it isn’t just the peace process that is jeopardized by the indictment. It’s also the millions of barrels of oil that make their way through Somali pirate-infested waters to quench the thirst of the gargantuan Chinese industrial  dragon.  

In equally predictable fashion, the Arab League was reportedly ‘greatly disturbed’ by the indictment. And why not? They perceive an attack on General al-Beshir as an attack on their collective superstructure by the infidel west. They are exactly the kinds of friends the general needs should he ever need to flee the country, thus borrowing a leaf from Idi Amin.  

What about the African Union? Privately, some African leaders would like to see the man held to account, but in typical ambivalent fashion the AU wants the indictment delayed for a year. Having failed to play any meaningful role to protect their fellow Africans, they don’t quite go the way of the Chinese and Arabs in rejecting the indictment.  

Neither have they welcomed it like the west. Instead they’re saying, since the indictment won’t simply vanish, as the likes of Radovan Karadjic, Slobodan Milosevic and Charles Taylor discovered, let’s give the strongman a specific timeframe within which to clean up his act. 

In practical terms, giving him some breathing space means a chance to weigh his options, and perhaps feather a foreign nest somewhere. After all, Mugabe is allegedly eyeing a bolthole in Asia should Harare get too hot, so why not let al-Beshir ‘retire’ at leisure, in the process earning a bit of face. Never mind if a few thousand more get killed in the process.  

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It seems there’s a new scramble for Africa. After the Chinese president’s visit a couple of weeks ago, the next major suitor is coming from the far east as well. She’s Australia’s Governor General, Quentin Bryce. Controversially, this non-politico Queen’s representative will be seeking Africa’s support for her country’s bid for a non permanent seat on the UN Security Council.  

Why send a largely ceremonial ‘leader’ on such a mission anyway? Why not send someone more appropriate, like a senior minister, seeing as Prime Minister Kevin Ruud can’t be bothered to do it himself? Not surprisingly, some feel this sort of lobbying will merely compromise the country’s principles by appeasing countries they would rather treat at arm’s length.  

Kenya, a country ranked amongst the most corrupt in the world, is on her itinerary. There are many down under who don’t believe their Governor General should be engaging in political debates that touch on foreign policy. The opposition in particular has been at pains to point out that lobbying foreign states unnecessarily politicises her office.  

A previous effort to woo Africa failed. This time, Australia is desperate to play a bigger role on the world stage, and is rather wary of being upstaged by China when it comes to new frontiers like Africa. A ‘middle’ power role is just the thing they’re looking for. And that involves courting middle and lower level global players who can be persuaded to make new ‘friends’ and create new economic and trading partnerships. But that’s where engagements become political and begin to look like a give-and-take. 

Appeasing Africa this time raises the question, what’s there in it for Africa? What will Australia be offering the selected African countries this time? Investment deals? A more prominent role in peace and security in trouble spots? Africa is truly up for grabs. When Australians question the wisdom of the visit, they’re also wondering what Africa will be demanding.

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When Laxmi Oraon was assaulted and forced to run naked after protesting against discrimination, she probably never expected she would be catapulted from shame to running for public office. But that’s the fate that awaits a woman from a minority Indian tribe.  

Is Africa ready for an Obama reality check?    8 March 2009

Much has been made of Barack Obama’s ascendancy and what it means for Kenya in particular and Africa as a whole. Some call him the heir to Nelson Mandela. The weight of expectations placed on fifteen years ago was enormous. Most of those expectations were clearly unrealistic. That became clear when on an earlier visit to Kenya, he failed to put pressure, at least publicly, on the then so-called Nyayo regime to reform its ways.   

With a sense of déjà vu, we must be wary of any extravagant proclamations about our new Moses’ ability to part the waters and lead us to the promised land. Obama’s overriding challenge is to salvage the US economy, and until the shoots of recovery begin to show, that will be the cause of whatever sleepless nights he’ll endure for some time to come.  

Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso was honoured as the first world leader to be hosted at the White House. Every president and prime minister and perhaps the odd dictator wants to be first in line to visit because of the symbolism that attaches to the relations between their respective countries. 

To many observers, Aso’s visit was both unexpected and enigmatic. You can be sure it had nothing to do with the fact that there’s a little town in Japan called Obama. The Prime Minister himself is not rated very highly by his own people, and Japan as a country has wallowed so long in economic and political stagnation that this seal of approval must have come as a pleasant surprise.  

It reflects America’s ambitious expectations of Japan’s role in the region. Yet Japan has for decades failed to offer any sort of regional leadership, echoing its own domestic rudderless politics. China’s emerging economic might alone more or less assures that country a pivotal role in regional geo-politics.  

But given the ongoing squabble with the US on trade, the value of the yuan, human rights, Taiwan, Tibet and so forth, an invite for the Chinese leadership was never on the cards. That is not to say it won’t happen. The two presidents have had a very good dialogue so far, which is a marked improvement on the belligerent approach former President Bush took towards China when he described China as a strategic competitor.  

Obama is approaching China with a new tone, with talk about partnership and closer collaboration. Even though they remain strategic competitors economically, they also recognize they need each other. With the US economy in tatters, China now realizes how critically they have relied on the American consumer market. And in spite of all those accusations about China manipulating its currency, America needs China’s stock of dollars to keep the greenback afloat and rejuvenate the world economy.    

Hillary Clinton’s Asian trip shows where America’s priorities lie. It shows America is keen to develop a new partnership with countries like China and Japan for economic reasons, with Korea in order to help contain North Korea, with Indonesia in order to signal rapprochement with the Muslim world. It might be too much to ask the Secretary of State to shake more hands, kiss more babies and make more speeches across Asia, but the omission of India shows just how difficult it is to please everyone.

India remains a key ally, especially in terms of engaging Pakistan. It’s a difficult balance to strike for two countries that have clamoured for US favours as much as they’ve squabbled over everything from borders to threats to each other’s internal security. In the current delicate climate it was considered best to let both simmer for a while.  

And where does Africa feature in all this? After Asia, Europe is likely next in line purely for global economic reasons for now. The terror and political dynamics that dictated Euro-US relations in the past have shifted somewhat. And one can’t forget Middle East and the usual suspects, Afghanistan and Iran. 

When Africa’s time comes, we should try not to get too carried away with the son of the soil thing. It will be nice to celebrate, to slaughter a bull or ten. Obama and his lieutenants will come bearing incense and frankincense to herald a new dawn for Afro-US relations. But I hope that while ordinary folks are out feasting and dancing, our leaders will remain sober long enough to re-define Afro-US relations, because there won’t be another chance in a long time to come.  

There won’t be another chance to place Africa firmly on the American international policy and trade agenda. While Asean speaks with one voice, or at least makes a brave effort to, and Europe still wields sufficient clout on the world stage, Africa remains divided. Leaders cannot even agree on what to do with the despots, gun-totting rebels and machete-wielding hoodlums that continue to run amuck.  

With they cower in shame when Obama condemns the violence and human rights abuses in Darfur, when he calls Mugabe a blemish on the African conscience? Will they curse under their breath when he tells them their corruption is crippling the continent yet they expect financial support from the west? Let them welcome him home, but let them be warned that Obama will not come to massage their egos.

North Korean missile launch is the last kick of a dying horse 1 March 2009

The hermit state of North Korea may be isolated, starving and poverty-stricken, but they proudly hang on to their ability to saber-rattle with threats of attacks on their southern cousins.  

Their food stocks may be dwindling if not totally exhausted, but they still have money to invest in advanced warfare technology, though with the impoverished nation, one uses the word advanced with caution. 

For much of last year, the health status of Kim Jonj-il was shrouded in mystery. He finally emerged looking much the worse for wear, though there’s no end to the intrigue. Some even claim he died years ago and has been replaced in public appearances by look- alikes. 

It is the sort of gimmick North Korea is capable of pulling, with their obsession with the personality cult of Kim Jong-il and his even more revered late father. These god-like characters will continue to loom large in the national psyche long after they’re gone. 

The president’s illness such as it was, must have made an impact because of the subsequent renewed talk of an heir. As is common with palace succession intrigue, it is never clear who is most likely to continue the family dynasty. The eldest son was once thought to be the obvious choice. But he fell out of favour after being caught trying to enter Japan with a forged passport and was promptly deported to China.  

The incident was probably less embarrassing to King Jong-nam than it was to his father, and possibly to China. However, China remains a staunch ally, and has continued to provide, among other things, medical care for the ailing dictator. 

Which of the other sons is currently the favoured one is like a game of musical chairs, complete with propaganda campaigns by the military and ruling party who convey their preference or possibly the ruler’s preference by publicly applauding the qualities of the mother, living or deceased, of the favoured son. To get an inkling as to who is currently in the frame, it helps to see what the praise singers are saying about the mother.  

The outlook for North Korea changed dramatically when the South discontinued the practice of providing food aid with no strings attached. The hermit regime hasn’t taken too kindly to this slight. But rather than mend their ways, they’ve instead become even more belligerent. For too long they had taken a privilege for a right, and grown accustomed to donations of free food from a neighbour who treated them like family, because of their joint ethnic and historical roots. 

One is reminded of the story of a man who made a habit of stopping on his way to work to hand over a chunk of bread and a cup of hot steaming tea to a struggling neighbour down the road. One day he passed by without the regular and the shocked neighbour demanded to know what had happened to his breakfast that morning.  

Kim Jong-il didn’t just throw a tantrum and demand his free breakfast. He decided it was time to teach a lesson to the inconsiderate neighbours as well as the men who supposedly manipulate the strings in their back from faraway Washington.    

Launching a satellite into orbit is their euphemism for testing a long range missile. Ten years ago they fired a rocket across Japan and then reported they had launched a satellite. This is a country that plays according to its own rules and has a rare capacity to give meanings to actions and words in a manner that is decidedly Kafkaesque.  

Launching a missile, or firing a satellite, whatever you want to call it, is a warning to South Korean President Lee Myung-bak to go easy on his poor cousins. Equally significantly, it is an attempt to dictate the US-North Korea agenda. It is a warning to President Obama not to continue the hardline approach of his predecessor, who forced them to abandon or at least call a halt on their nuclear ambitions, even to the point of blowing up part of a nuclear reactor.  

They’re also hoping to hold Obama to his word – in his presidential campaign he promised to talk to people like Kim Jong-il rather than ‘nuke’ them, in the flowery words of one of his opponents. One suspects that if Obama indeed chooses to engage with Kim Jong-il, it is to remind him of his inaugural speech promises to the effect that those who support freedom will be America’s friends. And those who don’t, well, will find themselves ‘on the wrong side of history’.  

The fact that the satellite/missile now being readied for launching is said to be capable of reaching the US could well be Obama’s first major test. It is also making the South a little jittery. A launch will trigger further economic sanctions, escalate tensions and provoke the North into even more desperate and unpredictable actions. It’s the last kick of a dying horse.  

For now, some are counting on their shabby technological past to carry the day. The Taepodong-2 they launched in 2006 fizzled away within seconds. If technological advancement has delivered a superior missile in the last three years, and if this missile causes real damage, North Korea could have bitten more than they can chew.