Rock concert debacle casts a shadow over Hong Kong authorities   27 July 2008

Readers might recall the SARS crisis that swept across Asia in 2003. It was a scary time. We were forced to go about our lives with faces hidden behind surgical masks. A cough on a train or any public place was likely to generate panic, frightened eyes peering over the masks to see where the threat of infection was coming from. 

When the epidemic was finally contained the Hong Kong authorities decided to organize a number of functions to cheer the people up, rejuvenate a battered economy and attract tourist dollars. One such programme was a waterfront rock extravaganza that featured the likes of Prince, t.A.T.u, Westlife, the Rolling Stones and some local acts. A governmental effort to revive the economy though rock concerts, as controversial as it sounds, was the story the world generally got to know of. The event itself was mired in controversy, and not merely for the USD12.8 million the taxpayers coughed up to underwrite it.  

The story that has refused to go away until this month was the seemingly little issue as to who bore responsibility for the mistakes that were made. As it happens, the Chief Executive, Donald Tsang, had just introduced a new ministerial accountability system in which, the name suggested, ministers would be held accountable for policy decisions, and one would have thought, ministerial decisions gone awry.  

The Harbour Fest was the first major test of this system, and it failed miserably. A senior civil servant, Mike Rowse, who liaised with the American Chamber of Commerce to organize the concerts was ultimately found guilty of misconduct and failing to supervise the event properly. He was fined one month’s salary and severely reprimanded over the handling of the festival whose attendance was so poor that on several occasions the overpriced tickets had to be given away to avoid embarrassing Prince and co.  

The inquiry, in fact the whole disciplinary process seemed as though it was designed to exonerate the ministers and find a scapegoat. Mr Rowse fought his corner vigorously and has finally been cleared of wrong doing. He has all along maintained it was not his responsibility to organize the rock concerts. As far as he was concerned, that responsibility was borne by the American Chamber of Commerce, and supervised by the government. 

The court’s decision casts the government in a very poor light. None of the five ministers involved in the launch of rock extravaganza assumed responsibility for the debacle. One of them was actually deemed to have attempted to tamper with the evidence.  

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The US government continues to wave a carrot and stick nuclear policy in Asia in a last ditch effort to secure some sort of legacy for George Bush. This president who once described North Korea, Iran and Iraq as the ‘axis of evil’ has been making overtures to North Korea, a move which has seen an ‘evil’ dictatorship at once courted and brow-beaten to dismantle and abandon its nuclear aspirations.  

Blowing up a water cooling tower, a part of a major plutonium enrichment plant in dramatic fashion last month was supposed to signify their intention to play by the rules. They didn’t do it merely to win America’s friendship. The deal comes with important economic sweeteners and the removal of sanctions.  The ‘Hermit Kingdom’ has been on America’s list of state sponsors of terrorism since 1987 when it was allegedly involved in the bombing of a South Korean plane, killing 115.  

Rehabilitation is not complete yet. Condoleeza Rice remains on the war path, delivering ‘strong messages’, reminding the North that the symbolic implosion must be accompanied by concrete deliverables in ending its nuclear and ballistic missiles programme but also in human rights, all of which are aimed at neutralizing its perceived threat to the region. Boxed into a corner for so long, and handicapped by a chronic inability to feed itself, the country saw a nuclear agenda as a convenient ruse to extract concessions from the international community. It sounds very much like blackmail engendered by desperation, hunger and isolation. America has made promises it didn’t keep, but with China playing a role behind the scenes to make the North Koreans play ball, there seems to be a breakthrough in the offing. However, with Kim Jong-il you never know. 

The biggest winner in the nuclear stakes so far is India whose nuclear aspirations have assumed renewed legitimacy on the basis that the new source of energy will boost its economic fortunes and uplift millions from poverty. The proposed deal will allow India to buy nuclear technology and hardware from the US so long as they accept UN inspectors and make a clear demarcation between an energy-creating civil programme and a military one.  

Indian industry will welcome the news given the state of the nation’s infrastructure and woefully inadequate energy. Frequent power cuts and expensive private generators have done little to sustain economic development, and have, not surprisingly contributed to high production costs, a situation not unlike the Kenyan one. If India proceeds with haste and seals this deal successfully, the Bush administration can claim a dubious triumph. In the nuclear state of things, that leaves Iran as the major sticking point, a problem bequeathed to either MacCain or Obama.

Much ado about a temple   20 July 2008

When the good people at Unesco granted a Hindu temple on the Thai-Cambodia border World Heritage status, they probably believed they were just doing their job, without fear or favour. But that brave act to protect the 900-year old Preah Vihear temple now seems about to precipitate the collapse of the fledgling Thai government.  

The temple lies on disputed territory. The two countries have shared hostilities since the 14^th century, often targeting each other’s historical and cultural heritage sites. Apparently tiring of military conquests, the Cambodian King Norodom Sihanouk decided to seek help from the International Court of Justice who proceeded to award sovereignty to Cambodia in 1962. The then Thai dictator complied, removed his troops from the temple’s environs, and everyone assumed that was the end of the matter.  

The magnificent Buddhist temple Angkor Wat only achieved World Heritage status in 1992, having barely survived the scourge of the Khmer Rouge years. An enhanced status has helped place the site on the tourist map, although this is yet to translate into big bucks. Seeking a similar status for Preah Vihear was a strategy crafted with tourist dollars in mind. And why not? The country is in dire need of an economic shot in the arm. The first application was made seven years ago. Thailand has consistently opposed this move even though no one was making any effort to resolve the border dispute. 

And to its credit, the relevant Unesco committee has always been aware that the temple lies on disputed territory, and for that reason deferred a decision until Thailand and Cambodia made up their minds whose temple it was. Well, they haven’t. But for some reason that still remains murky, Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama decided to endorse Cambodia’s application without consulting parliament. That was apparently good enough for Unesco, who proceeded to grant Cambodia their wish.  

Prime Minister Hun Sen declared it a victory, and a ‘new pride for the people of Cambodia’. The celebrations that rocked the country were in stark contrast to the gloom and shock in Thailand. Claiming that the country’s sovereignty had been compromised, parliament passed a vote of no confidence and forced the foreign minister out of office.  

This resignation is not the only one that threatens Samak Sundaravej’s government, but it is so far the most significant. In May a minister was forced to resign over allegations that he insulted the King. And more recently, the health minister was relieved of his duties for failing to disclose his wife’s assets.  

These are new developments for a country in which leadership has traditionally been characterized by impunity, just like in Kenya. Accusations of abuse of power were central to Thaksin Shinawatra’s ousting. The foreign minister’s unilateral actions look like a throw back to that dark era, sparking rumours of dodgy deals. 

Interesting, the current pressures on Kenyan ministers seem to mirror those of their Thai counterparts, the only difference being that the latter are much quicker at locating the exit. Samak is having a hard time fighting accusations that he’s just a proxy for former Prime Minister Thaksin. The elevation of Preah Vihear is now rekindling a dangerous nationalist fervour in which the regime is being seen as having sold the nation to an old enemy.  

Few in Thailand have forgotten how an enraged Cambodian mob torched the Thai embassy in 2001 following rumours that some Thai actress had suggested Angkor Wat belonged to Thailand. There’s no telling how angry Thai activists might respond to the perceived loss of Preah Vihear, especially if the government is implicated by having signed it away.

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Vietnam has come a long way, still retaining a culture in which women are expected to dress conservatively to hosting the Miss Universe pageant in which scantily-clad women were on display on stage and beamed to millions around the world. The irony was lost on the contestants who spoke only of the great time they had had, the wonderful hospitality, the happy smiles and adulation.  

Vietnam now prides itself as the only communist country to have ever hosted the pageant. I’m not sure why that matters so much, since their neighbour China seems to be the permanent host for the rival Miss World. Vietnam is still the one to beat, having earned to right to hold the Miss World contest in 2010. The publicity these pageants generate is astounding. The recently ended event is expected to boost a tourist industry which has resisted previous efforts at resuscitation.  

The enduring images are those of a country devastated by war, in the grip of communist strongmen, unwilling to shake off the past and embrace the future. It is a somewhat inaccurate picture. The country has made enormous strides to industrialize, even offering itself as an alternative to China’s reputation as the world’s factory. It’s an aspiration that doesn’t quite have the same panache.  

The hangover of suspicion about foreign interests and a stifling bureaucracy are still an obstacle. The Vietnamese beauty contestant unwittingly captured the plight of her country when she gushed that wearing her traditional ao dai was a quest for confidence that she hoped others would share. What Vietnam seems to need badly is confidence to shake off the shackles of the past. And take on the world.

G8 promises little more than an empty ‘vision’      13 July 2008 

As expected, the G8 summit in Hokkaido ended with the world’s most powerful leaders triumphantly patting themselves on the back for having ‘reached agreement’ on a so-called ‘vision’ on global warming. It was a ‘vision’ devoid of specific targets and milestones.  

The very language they like to use betrays a less than enthusiastic approach to fighting global warming. Last year, the said they would ‘seriously consider’ working toward a target. You never hear them say, we’ll ‘seriously consider’ fighting terrorism, curbing crime on our streets, eradicating poverty and disease. What is there to consider? You either do it or you don’t.  

This time they bravely proclaimed they’ll work towards a target of at least halving emissions. Consider seriously. Work towards. Words that betray prevarication, procrastination and a disingenuous attempt to hide behind a veil of verbal ambiguity. Is it because they are politicians, a species that possesses a special gift of speaking in ways designed to pull the wool over our eyes while making us believe they’re capable of miracles?  

They say they’ve come up with a ‘vision’. That’s what they’re congratulating themselves about. The whole idea is laughable. I could have conjured up a vision for them for free, and saved a fortune in what was basically a charade. Any teenager in a high school environmental protection debating group could have forged a ‘vision’ on how to curb global warming. It took seven of the world’s most powerful men and one woman to come up with a ‘shared vision’ that was supposed to be a great leap for mankind following last year’s shameless ‘seriously considering’ platitude.  

Global warming is here to stay. The world would be naïve to expect miracles from Hokkaido or whatever other city hosts the next G8 party. The politics of national vested interests will ensure that major polluters will continue holding back and getting away with it. The US position is particularly interesting. Although the G8 are responsible for at least 60% of carbon dioxide emissions, the Americans continue to insist they’ll make no further commitment unless the big developing world polluters like China and India pull up their socks.

No one denies that China, India and the rest of the developing world should be doing as much as the richest nations on earth. However, leaders from these nations are essentially a side show at the G8 fest. They’re allowed to stand on their soapboxes and make whatever noises they like, mostly after the main event is over. The richest nations yet again failed to provide leadership when they could have taken bold steps and demonstrated a commitment to work with the developing nations to help them achieve their own equally ambitious targets.  

It’s not just greenhouse that are at stake here. You’ve got food prices as well, and the role that bio-fuels play in creating food shortages and driving prices up. The sad thing for Africa is how resources on the continent are being committed to producing bio fuels to serve the interests of fuel consumers in the west. It is the new rape of Africa, which follows a familiar trajectory, except that instead of simply excavating and shipping container-loads of raw materials, Africans are now being told they should be happy they’re getting better prices for their cash crops. A few do. Many others find themselves struggling. Villagers in Tanzania are being prevailed upon by British and Swedish firms to grow jatropha and sugar cane to produce biofuels with the promise of a few pieces of silver and at the risk of inviting food shortages.  

Massive protests around the world are as likely to be about stolen elections as they are about food and fuel prices. In fact there is often a close connection between food and fuel protests and protests against the powers that be. This is evident for example in recent protests that have rocked Malaysia. Anger at rising fuel prices has resulted in a two-pronged attack on a government that lost much credibility when Abdullah Badawi assumed power with the narrowest of margins barely four months ago. 

The prime minister has struggled to keep the economy on an even keel and to demonstrate he can lead, and lead well. Anwar Ibrahim has been lurking in the shadows, gathering his troops and making damning speeches at fuel protests. He says the charges of sodomy he is being accused of are a desperate attempt by a beleagured administration to bring his campaign to regain power to a grinding halt.  

Many people seem to think so, especially when they remember he was acquitted of similar charges after serving years in jail. How can a government stoop so low, they wonder. The saga continues. Ironically, protests are taking place in an oil-producing country that enjoys some of the lowest pump prices in the region. The government still has some leeway to justify further rises if they choose to, but they recognize now that they are skating on very thin ice.  

Anwar Ibrahim’s stature is rising even as that of the prime minister shrinks. The way things are going, and following the plight of the Haitian leader in April, Abdullah Badawi is facing the prospect of being the first leader in the east to be shown the door by the combined power of anger over fuel prices and weak leadership.

Mongolia joins the electoral mayhem train        6 July 2008

 It was a dark day for one of the world’s first superpowers, although one uses the term with caution. The protestors in Mongolia made sure of it. Fearing electoral fraud, they set fire to the building many refer to as the Communist party building. However, if you look closely, however, you’ll quickly discover that the governing coalition comes in a variety of shades, and the communists haven’t governed since they were forced to embrace multi-party politics eighteen years ago. As a fragile democracy they’re about the same age as Kenya.  

Their road to democracy has been equally tortuous. In a way they’re a victim of the collapse of the communist order which was most vividly marked by the splintering of the former USSR. Mongolia had existed as a virtual satellite of the USSR, and when the latter imploded, it shattered the fortunes of a country that is largely populated by nomadic pastoralists.  

The Mongols haven’t always been struggling herdsmen at the mercy of powerful neighbours. This landlocked country that is sandwiched between Russia and China enjoys the dubious honour of having once created the largest and most successful imperial empire on the planet. The Mongolian sphere of influence stretched from eastern Europe all the way to Vietnam and Korea, with the world’s greatest military strategist at the helm, a ruthless man known as Genghis Khan.  

One by one the nations of Asia and Europe fell to a brutal occupation force that made Alexander the Great look like an amateur javelin sportsman. Much of the Middle East including Iran, Irag, Syria, sections of Turkey, Hungary, Poland, large swathes of Russia, much of Asia and the largest prize of all, China. Mongol fighters were brutal and unforgiving. They went about destroying entire cities and slaughtering millions in their quest for world domination.  

Through a combination of superior military organization and combat skills way ahead of their time, Mongol soldiers were some of the fiercest and most lethal fighters that ever graced a battlefield.  

It all ended when brothers and cousins couldn’t agree on who should govern, a good example of poor succession planning and political avarice. 

Of course none of that advanced thirteenth century fighting skill was evident in the recent post-election mayhem. Modern Mongols resorted to the most rudimentary form of hostility, including arson, raining missiles on the police, looting and alleged bank robbery. Good thing they’re not attempting world domination, dressed in jeans and t-shirts, and armed with rocks and Molotov cocktails. Genghis Khan would definitely not approve.  

History is replete with empires that rose and fell and were never heard of again. The tragedy of Mongolia is that you had a civilization, if one can apply the term to a global system of rape and plunder, that had perfected the art of subjugating other nations but did little to develop a system of sustainable scientific, technological and economic development. A brief and unprecedented one-hundred year history of political and military domination ground to a halt, and the citizens went back to a more humble preoccupation of herding goats and racing their horses on semi-arid and barren steppes. 

It is ironical that something like seven hundred years after the Mongols had brought Russia to its knees and burned many if not most of its cities, the country was to become almost entirely dependent on 20^th century Communist Soviet Union. The Russians saw no reason to support satellites for a communist empire that had ceased to exist. And Mongolia was forced to start finding ways to support itself. 

A few years ago, as economic hardships began to bite and the country started to wander aimlessly in a political wilderness, they resorted to invoking the legacy of Genghis Khan as a way to foster national pride and patriotism. There’s understandably a great deal of pride in the conqueror and his achievements.  

For years, the Communists suppressed the name, the history and everything the conqueror stood for. But all that has changed. The legacy is now being milked dry. Fortune hunters are being licensed left, right and centre to discover where the great man lies buried. It is like the search for our own Dedan Kimathi, but on a larger scale.  

Legend has it that fifty soldiers were ordered to bury Genghis Khan at a secret location; they were subsequently killed by another cohort who then killed themselves. No one knows where the burial, mass murder and mass suicide took place.  

Western bounty hunters are happily digging up graves and turning the entire countryside inside out. It is a large country, and much of it is inaccessible. It could take a long time. It might be more helpful for the government to license people who are prepared to dig up the ground instead and find the vast unexploited mineral resources.    

The happy days of Communism won’t return any time soon. The challenge for the majority of people is how to survive the winds of democracy and capitalism. Many thought the elections would bring about a change in their fortunes. The Democrats say they were robbed of victory. Isn’t it shocking how often we hear that refrain nowadays, how there’s so little trust in the electoral processes, where incumbents hang on to power at all costs? Zimbabwe last week. Next, Mongolia. Where will we find true democrats?